Positive surprises from government reports on retail sales, industrial production, and housing in the past few months are leading economists to revise their real gross domestic product forecasts upward, supporting the notion that the recession ended in December or January.
Bear in mind: This recovery won’t have the vitality normally associated with an upturn. Economists now expect real GDP growth of about 1. 5% in the first quarter. That’s better than the 0. 4% the consensus projected in December, but much of the additional growth will come from a slower pace of inventory drawdowns, not from surging demand.
Moreover, the economy won’t grow fast enough to help the labor markets much. The only good news there is that jobless claims have fallen back from their spike after September 11 and that their current level suggests the pace of layoffs is easing.
The recovery also does not mean the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon. The Ja
A. employment rates have risen faster than expected.
B. the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon.
C. GDP is growing because of surging demand.
D. Industrial production has reached its lowest point.
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