| There are several different methods
that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends
upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to
the forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents,
and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast. The first of these methods is the persistence method; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example, if it is sunny and 87 degree today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degree tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. However, if weather conditions change significantly from day to day, the persistence method usually bre A. (A) The method will work well if weather conditions change greatly from day to day. B. (B) It is the simplest and the best way of producing a forecast. C. (C) It is impossible to use the method because weather condition changes constantly. D. (D) The root of the frequent failure of the method is the assumption on which it is based. [判断题]民警张某、李某在抓捕一吸毒人员过程中，张某掏出手枪先对其口头警告，后鸣枪示警，在无效的情况下张某开枪射击，将该吸毒人员腿部击伤后将其抓获。张某使用武器是符合《中华人民共和国人民警察使用警械和武器条例》规定的。
[单项选择]某建设项目建安工程费6500万元，设备购置费3200万元，工程建设其他费用1000万元，已知基本预备费率8%，项目建设前期年限为1年，建设期为2年，各年投资计划额为：第一年完成投资60%，第二年完成40%。年均投资价格上涨率为8%，则建设项目建设期间涨价预备费为( )万元。
A. 1829.14 B. 1654.83 C. 1811.83 D. 1725.32 [单项选择]The decline in moral standards-which has long concerned social analysts--has at last captured the attention of average Americans. And Jean Bethke Elshtain, for one, is glad.
The fact the ordinary citizens are now starting to think seriously about the nation’s moral climate, says this ethics (伦理学) professor at the University of Chicago, is reason to hope that new ideas will come forward to improve it. But the challenge is not to be underestimated. Materialism and individualism in American society are the biggest obstacles. "The thought that ’I’m in it for me’ has become deeply rooted in the national consciousness," Ms. Elshtain says. Some of this can be attributed to the disintegration of traditional communities, in which neighbors looked out for one another, she says. With today’s greater mobility and with so many couples working, those bonds have been weakened, replaced by a greater emphasis on serf. In a 1996 poll of Americans, loss of morality topped the list of A. Great mobility. B. Concern for one’s neighbors. C. Emphasis on individual effort. D. Ever-weakening social bonds. [判断题]“金鹿直通车”签约客户只能在我行柜面办理银证转账业务。
A.正确 B.错误 [单选题]以下站台功能仅对当前列车有效的是（）
A.紧停 B.扣车 C.释放 D.跳停 [简答题]什么是精基准？选择精基准有哪些基本原则？
[单项选择]小儿左右平衡和精细动作与粗大运动的协调发育基本成熟的年龄一般在（）
A. 3岁 B. 5岁 C. 7岁 D. 9岁 E. 11岁 [单选题]根据《信息技术服务分类与代码》GB/T29264-2012 中所定义的信息技术服务的分类，面向计算机网络设备的运维服务应属于( )。
A.基础环境运维 B.硬件运维 C.安全运维 D.其他运维 [单项选择]从历史数据看，一般来说，股票市场的表现和小公司(以市场资本总额衡量)投资组合表现的关系是（）。
A. 前者优于后者 B. 前者后者表现相同 C. 后者优于前者 D. 二者不能相比 [单选题]按《塔里木油田钻井井控实施细则》规定:高压气井的盐膏层、目的层和其它压力敏感性目的层作业，在钻头出套管鞋时，（ ）应安装旋塞和浮阀（旋塞在下，浮阀在上）。
A.钻具 B.井口 C.井底 D.钻具中间 [判断题]铁路综合视频监控系统显示设备是用于显示文字及相关控制信息的设备。
A.正确 B.错误 [单选题]党的十一届三中全会强调,我们要在自力更生的基础上积极发展同世界各国的平等互利的经济合作,努力采用世界先进技术和设备,并大力加强实现现代化所必需的()。
A.科学和教育工作 B.思想政治工作 C.招商引资工作 [单选题] 在多人落水需要施救,应按“()”的顺序进行救援。( )
A. 先近后远,先水面后水下 B. 先远后近,先水面后水下 C. 先近后远,先水下后水面 D. 先远后近,先水下后水面 [单选题]( )演练是针对应急预案中某项应急响应功能开展的演练活动。
A.现场 B.单项 C.综合 [单选题]社会青年刘某(男，23周岁)、李某(男，13周岁)和王某(男,15周岁)到小店吃饭,结账时与店主发生争执,三人殴打店主致其轻微伤。下列说法正确的是:
A.对三人均作出行政拘留处罚决定并执行 B.对刘某作出行政拘留处罚决定但不执行 C.对王某作出行政拘留处罚决定但不执行 D.对李某作出行政拘留处罚决定但不执行 [单选题]（ ）的验电应逐相(直流线路逐极)进行。
A.变压器 B.开关 C.线路 D.刀闸 E.略 F.略 我来回答: 提交
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