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第一篇
Forecasting Methods
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses
depends upon the experience of the forecaster,the amount of information available to the forecaster,the level of
difficulty that the forecast situation presents,and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.
The first of these methods is the persistence method,the simplest way of producing a forecast.The per-
sistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change.For example,if it is
sunny and 87 degrees today,the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow.
If two inches of rain fell today,the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow.
However,if weather conditions change significantly from day to day,the persistence method usually breaks
down and is not the best forecasting method to use.
The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts,high and low
pressure centers , and areas of clouds and precipitation（降水量）.Using this information , the forecaster can
predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time.For example,if a storm system is
1,000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day,using the trends method you
would predict it arrive in your area in 4 days.The trends method works well when systems continue to move
at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time.If they slow down,speed up,change intensi-
ty,or change directions,the trends forecast will probably not work as well.
The climatology（气候学）method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves
averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast.For example,if you were using
the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th,you would go through all the
weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average.The climatology method oniy
works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. If the pattern is
quite unusual for the given time of year,the climatology method will often fail.
The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast.It involves examining
today's forecast scenario（模式）and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very
similar(an analog).The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as ii
did in the past.The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict ana-
log.Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations as they were in the previous time.
Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.
The analog method should not be used in making a weather forecast when________.
A.the current weather scenario is different from the analog
B.the analog looks complicated
C.the analog is more than 10 years old
D.the current weather scenario is exactly the same as the analog
[判断题]高架绝缘斗臂车应经检验合格。斗臂车操作人员应熟悉带电作业的有关规定，并经专门培训上岗。
A.正确
B.错误
[单项选择]体液是动物及人体内含有的液体，它包括（）①细胞内液②血浆③淋巴④组织液⑤消化液
A. ①②③④⑤
B. ①②③
C. ②③④
D. ①②③④
[判断题]混凝土枕无缝线路更换接头螺栓或涂油，作业轨温比锁定轨温+20℃以上，禁止作业( )。
A.正确
B.错误
[单选题]重力 对于 ( ) 相当于 ( ) 对于 昼夜交替
A.物体质量；月圆月缺
B.潮汐；地球公转
C.地球；月球
D.自由落体；地球自转
[多选题]《幼儿园园长专业标准》办学理念中提到秉承先进教育理念和管理理念,突出园长的领导力和执行力。( )
A.领导力
B.分享能力
C.执行力
D.学习能力
[多选题]公民、法人或者其他组织对行政机关所给予的行政处罚享有的权利包括( )。
A.陈述权
B.申辩权
C.控告权
D.抗辩权
E.申诉权
[多项选择]关于CFA证书，下列说法正确的有( )。
A. 获得CFA证书需要通过两级考试
B. CFA一级要求掌握财务分析、宏微观经济学、数理统计的基本理论
C. CFA二级要求运用所学到的金融理论，比较并推荐最合理的投资工具
D. CFA证书获得者必须具备3年相关工作经验
[单选题]在( )中应阐明参训人员的基本条件或文化程度。
A.培训目标
B.培训对象
C.培训时间
D.培训内容
[单项选择]（）形成共价键的电子云正好位于键合的两个原子正中间，如金刚石的C—C键。
A. 非极性共价键
B. 极性共价键
C. 配价键
[单项选择]园林中的铺装地面的坡度要求严格，通常为了排水，最小坡度应大于（）。
A. 5%
B. 10%
C. 2%
D. 15%
[单选题]综合维度竞赛中权重为50%是( )
A.普惠贷款
B.全量客户
C.全量收入
D.全量金融资产
[简答题]电压中枢点的三种调压方法有哪些？哪种最容易实现？哪种介于其中？哪种最难实现？
[判断题]当确认火灾后,消防联动控制器应发出联动控制信号强制所有电梯停于首层或电梯转换层并切断所有电梯电源。( )
A.正确
B.错误
[单选题]液化石油气的常温常压，常温是指( )℃。
A. 0
B. 10
C. 20
D. 30
[判断题]实施大数据战略是政府治理现代化的重要路径。
[单选题]处理放线、紧线过程中卡、挂现象时操作人员应站在卡线处外侧，用手拉、推导线。
A.正确
B.错误
C./
D./
E./
F./
[单选题]在Word中删除表格中的一列后，该列后的其余列应（）
A.向右移
B.向上移
C.向左移
D.和下移
[单选题] 车辆远光灯的标称电压为DC24V,分别由两台DC24V电源模块独立供电。(1.0分)
A.Yes
B.No
[多选题]我行目前可以提供的进口贸易融资服务有（ ）
A.进口押汇
B.进口代付
C.进口信用证
D.打包打款
[单项选择]患者30岁，左上6因深髓治疗时不慎意外穿髓，穿髓孔一钻针大小。该患牙应如何处理（）
A. 氢氧化钙制剂直接盖髓，羧酸水门汀垫底，银汞合金充填
B. 氢氧化钙制剂直接盖髓，氧化锌丁香油糊剂安抚
C. 氢氧化钙制剂直接盖髓，玻璃离子水门汀充填
D. 活髓切断术
E. 牙髓治疗
[单项选择]下列哪一类型不属于过失犯罪动机的类型（）。
A. 贪利动机
B. 虚荣自我显示动机
C. 取乐动机
D. 财物动机
[单选题]12.指出新闻媒介并没有随心所欲地为公众设置议程的力量的我国学者是( )
A.喻国明
B.李彬
C.范东生
D.张国良
[判断题]F8型电空制动装置中，电控阀和F8分配阀配合使用，若电控阀发生故障，分配阀无法单独工作。
A.正确
B.错误
[单选题]车辆识别代号（VIN）的年份代码使用每_______循环一次。
A.15
B.20
C.30
D.50
[判断题]矛盾双方只是对立不可能统一。()
A.正确
B.错误
[单项选择]普通橡胶垫片适合于（）。
A. 温度低于293K
B. 温度低于298K
C. 温度低于313K
D. 温度低于333K
[判断题]虽然没有被告人供述，但是其他证据确实充分的，可以认定被告人有罪和处以刑罚。（ ）
A.正确
B.错误
[多项选择]甲公司成立五年来，利用创业者的人脉关系，企业规模得到迅速发展。但该创业者也愈发感觉到面临竞争时企业有些力不从心。经过向咨询公司请教，得出的结论是该企业缺乏核心竞争力。对于该企业而言，能够帮助创业者识别自身核心竞争力的方法包括( )。
A. 功能分析
B. 资源分析
C. 情景分析
D. 过程系统分析
[多选题]
变压器分接开关试验应注意()。
A. 感应电压的影响
B. 静电及剩余电荷的影响
C. 触头表面油膜及杂质对直流电阻的影响
D. 测量有载分接开关动作顺序时,必须将电操机构的控制电源退出
[单选题]《国家电网公司输变电工程结算管理办法》规定，业主项目部具体负责工程结算日常工作，开展工程量管理、设计变更管理和进度款支付管理等工作，对承包人递交的工程结算文件进行审核，编制和上报工程结算。
A.正确
B.错误
[判断题]fhzb防护器材按使用场合分为常规防护装备和特种防护装备。( )(易)
A.正确
B.错误
[判断题]贯彻“安全第一、预防为主、综合治理”的方针，树立科学全面的“大安全”观，坚持“管业务必须管安全”的原则，实行全面、全员、全过程、全方位的安全管理，建立一级抓一级、一级对一级负责的安全责任制。
A.正确
B.错误
[判断题] 两台 V∕V 接线的电压互感器,不能起绝缘监察作用。( )
A.正确
B.错误
[单选题]一年内无故迟到、早退累计（ ）及以上的，视情节轻重给予降级或撤职处分。
A.15次
B.30次
C.40次
D.50次
[多选题]出血性膀胱炎需观察哪些临床表现?( )
A.血尿
B.尿频、尿急、尿痛
C.排尿困难
D.尿潴留
